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Future Strategic Issues




4: Utilization/Application of 2025 Projections Inputs to Future Warfighting Concepts Development(s) (Enemy After Next & Blue) Inputs to New Procurement Decision (15 years to Produce, 40 years in Inventory Heads Up for Intel Community (Watches and Warnings) Inputs to DOD R&D Planning

5: Going In Assumptions Politics can/does change overnight (e. g. Russia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, etc. ), Potential CAPABILITIES is the future warfare issue, not Who but WHAT Order of 10 years required to develop/field new systems, in inventory for 30 years, should be designed for middle of inventory period, hence 2025 time period

6: CURRENTLY Order of 70 of Worlds Research conducted outside of U. S. (to first order, a of GDP, U. S. produces order of 18 of worlds GDP) Order of 70 of U. S. Research now Commercial (as opposed to Government sponsored)


8: Hunter-Gatherer - Nature Provided Hunter-Gatherer - Nature Provided Agriculture - Controlled Nature (Plants/Animals) Industrial - Mechanized Agriculture IT/BIO/Nano - Automating Industry/Agriculture Virtual - Robotization of IT/Bio/Nano/Industry/Agriculture




12: IT Status 10E6 improvements in Computing since 59, 10E8 further possible next 30 years (10E3 provides better than Human capabilities) 100 Million Telecommuters Worldwide NOW (expected to at least double in 15 years) India graduates three times more software engineers than the U. S. , More software written in Bangalore than Southern CA IW effectively constitutes a 4th WMD




16: Advantages of Shallow Sea/Desert Production of Biomass (Via Seawater Irrigation) Closed CO2 Cycle (Obviates Global Warming) Food Petro-chemical feedstock Materials/clothing, etc. ENERGY (end reliance on Middle East) Terraforming, alter desertification etc. Preservation/Production of Fresh Water Rich Mineral source (Seawater) Utilization of Wastelands (Sahara, etc. )


18: Free Form Fabrication Powder/Wire Metallurgy using robotic magnetically steered electron beams to create accreting local melts - GROW instead of CUT No fasteners, no strong backs for fasteners Nearly infinite fatigue life, excellent metallurgy (Repairable) metals at lower weight than far more expensive composites


20: (Sample) New(er) Sensors Lidar w/ 50 efficiency via S-C optical Amplifiers, Also Fempto-second Lasers Molec. /Bio Sensors Nanotags Smart Card Sensors Sensors implanted during Manuf. /Servicing Nano IR (10E-6 Sensitivity) Smart Dust

21: Some Sensor Swarms SMART DUST Cubic mm or less Combined sensors, comms and power supply Floats in air currents for up to 2 years NANOTAGS Placed on everything/everywhere Identification and Status Info Co-opted INSECTS

22: Givens (Now-to-Soon) Gb data transfer rates, optical comms Terraflop-to-petaflop computing Exceptional AI (from Bioinfomatics, biomimetics) Wonderous/Ubiquitous land/sea/air/space multiphysics/hyperspectral sensor swarms (military/commercial/scientific) Survival requires dispersion/size reduction and concealment Robotic/swarm technologies primarily commercial/endemic worldwide

23: (Agreed Upon) Assumption, Combat in 2025 Proliferation of TBMs, IT, Precision strike/targeting, ubiquitous micro sensors, camo/spoofing, robotics, bio/chem munitions Logistic assets highly vulnerable in or out of theater In and near theater ports/airfields possibly unusable Beam weapons increasingly prevalent


25: Some Interesting Then Year BW Possibilities Aflatoxin - (natural, parts-per-billion, carcinogen) Airborne varieties of Ebola, Lassa, etc. Binary agents distributed via imported products (Vitamins, Clothing, Food) Genomicaly (individual/societal) targeted pathogens Long term/fingerprintless campaign (as opposed to shock and awe BW)


27: Slingatron for Global Precision Strike 10Kg projectiles, up to thousands/minute Global, or less, range M/device Mechanical on-the-ground propulsion via Gyrating Spiral Guide Tube (a multiple hula hoop Poor Mans Global Precision Strike/Takedown Weapon



30: Potential Future Orders of Magnitude Increases in Overall Weapon Effectiveness/Availability at Orders of Magnitude Reduced Cost(s) Bio/Chem/Molec. /Nano Computing - (E6) Ubiquitous Optical Comms - (E4) Micro/Nano/Ubiquitous Sensors - (E4) BioWeaponry - (EN) Co-operative Swarms of Cheap/Small Weapons/Sensors - (E4) Volumetric Weaponry - (E4) Cyber/Artificial Life (Beyond AI) - (E?)



33: THE INSHORE DETECTION VULNERABILITIES ( ACTIVE) ACOUSTICS Visual, lidar, IR, bio-lum, turbidity Press. pertub. effects on water column chem. , H2 bubbles, salinity, chem. releases Internal waves/surface waves--surfactant layer mods, in situ turb. /wakes, atmos. mods Magnetics, coms, periscope/radar, neutron flux


35: An ALTERNATIVE? A Spherical Submarine Obviate wave drag via submergence Optimal structural configuration Optimal (Goldschmeid) Propulsion Integration Minimal wetted area/volume (large radius) Onboard Polymer plant for TDR Minimal Interference & controls drag (thrust vectoring)





40: Given the Superb/Ubiquitous World Wide Sensor Suites and Precision Strike Capabilities Then Year the Following WILL NOT BE SURVIVABLE APODS/SPODS Runways Surface Ships Manned (logistic/combat) Aircraft Manned (logistic/combat) Ground Vehicles


42: Circa 2025 Machines as creative/smart as humans Robotics the norm Zeroth order warstopper - Binary bio into nations agric. /food distrib. system (every home/fox hole) Next level of concern: Ubiquitous/Cheap micro-to-nano EVERYTHING (sensors, munitions, weapons swarms/hordes) Battlefield attrition/CNN syndrome forces U. S. Army to look/act like SOCOM

43: (Suggested) Major U. S. Future (2025) Warfare Issues CONUS Defense (Requirement(s) for, potential approaches) Logistics Defense/Protection (in/out of theater) Survivability/Effectiveness of U. S. Forces on/near the Killing Ground in an era of affordable ubiquitous multiphysics hyperspectral sensors, precision strike, volumetric weaponry, swarms and hardened munitions

44: Non-explosive Warfare (psywar, biowar IT/net war, anti-operability war, Beam weaponry including RF, Spoofing/Cammo Non-explosive Warfare (psywar, biowar IT/net war, anti-operability war, Beam weaponry including RF, Spoofing/Cammo Robotic Warfare in the large/better than human AI/Cyber life Alternative Power Projection Approaches (e. g. Deep Water depth/death sphere, blast wave accelerator, etc. )

45: Future Power Projection? Humans hold instead of take ground (go in after Sanitization) Sanitization via: IW/Psywar Global Reach Guns (BWA/Slingatron) Deep water/large loadout Subs w/swimins Robotic Everything w/Volumetric weaponry non-explosive warfare

46: Changing Nature of Warfare

47: RMA Planning Shortfalls (NPS) Indications of the innovative paths adversaries might take or how they might adapt technologies from the civilian world (Being worked in the Technical War Games) The path from todays systems and capabilities to those hypothesized for the future (2020)

48: What is needed is a Then Year (2030) Serious/Holistic Vision of Warfare Changes Resulting from the On-going IT/Bio/Nano/Virtual Technological Revolutions Such does not exist, bumper sticker attempts extant. All are agreed, warfare will become increasingly robotic and probably more affordable, swarms of sensors/shooters are a given. A longer term Vision of these changes would enable mapping from the present, NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW TO Get There From Here as do not know where there is!

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